Canada's outgoing prime minister and the leader of the country's oil rich province of Alberta are both confident Canada can avoid the 25% tariffs President Donald Trump says he will impose on Feb. 1.

Canada is a main source of crude oil imports and industrial supplies like steel for the United States. More than 71% of U.S. crude oil imports were supplied by Canada and Mexico in 2023, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Of that share, 60% of oil came from Canada.

The cheap Canadian oil America craves is becoming a key bargaining chip in President Trump’s threatened trade war.